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We all want to know one thing, when will this coronavirus pandemic come to an end? Unfortunately, just like any virus or disease, we will have to continue to worry about the coronavirus until we find a vaccine that prevents people from getting this virus.

So the real question we want to know the answer to is, when will this peak and begin its decline? A widely cited model offers some predictions. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's COVID-19 projections have recently been cited in White House briefings. This model takes into account how the pandemic is playing out in several countries around the world and in each state in the U.S. They incorporate the current trend line of deaths in U.S. states and the estimated impact of social distancing measures. This helps them to predict when each state may reach peak daily deaths and hospital usage.

According to NPR, a lot of uncertainty comes with modeling what could happen in the future. The national model has a massive gap between its low and high estimates for peak daily deaths, which range from 1,300 and 7,700. But individual states have large gaps too. For example, the model estimates Iowa's daily deaths could range between 3 to 74 at its peak, and Illinois' daily deaths could range between 20 and 348.

So what are the peak dates for Iowa and Illinois? The peak date for Illinois comes 2 weeks before Iowa. Illinois will see it's peak date on April 12th with a projected 91 deaths in one day. Iowa won't see its peak date until April 26th with 19 projected deaths in one day.


Below is a map created by NPR with the exact data from The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's COVID-19 projections.

Source: NPR

Source: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation